Elaborating on the Austrian Time Preference Theory

Elaborating on the Austrian Time Preference Theory
by Alex Merced

I write this article after listening to Robert Murphys lecture Capital and Interest from Mises U 2010

While Listening to this having heard explanations of Time Preference theory plenty of times, I started having flash backs to an Austrian Scholars Conference lecture where Robert Murphey was actually giving a critic of the ATPT based on his dissertation, basically challenging the idea that a future good is always less valued than a present good. This made me start to think, I do understand ATPT, but I'm not sure if it fully explains why this preference exists fully other than a sort of hedonistic view of human nature to want to satisfy all it's wants now. Then again Patience is a virtue, and one can look at virtues as efforts to fight human nature.

First off let's recap the ATPT for those of you unfamilar...


Austrian Time Preference Theory

The Bottom Line: Present Goods are always more valuable then Future Goods

Example: Pre-Sale Tickets (future good) are cheaper than tickets at the door (present good)

This is an important theory for explaining the Austrians view on Capital and the Interest from Capital. For example I have a $100,000 and I have these two choices which would I make.

Buy $100,000 of Bonds and invest them in Bonds that yield 5%

or

Buy a $100,000 of fishing supplies expecting to catch enough fish to make $110,000 (10% yield)

So you see here the capital I have I'll put towards the fish equipment cause In the end I'll have a greater yield from my investments, this is how capital naturally gravitates towards it's most productive purpose. If my calculation was correct I can now buy another $100,000 of fishing equipment and next year catch enough fish to make $220,000. As you can see the more I go through this process the more capital I accumulate and the better my life gets even though no new science or technology has been developed, cause I've accumulated capital and can continue to re-invest that capital for interest.

This is what seperates developed countries from developing countries cause they may only be able to afford $20,000 of fishing equipment so a year later they'd only have $22,000 so it'll take some time and re-investment before the capital accumulation brings them to the developed level.

So where time preference theory comes into play is in the issue of why would someone pay me $110,000 for the fish if they can instead get the same fish by buying the Fishing Supplies for $100,000 and save themselves the $10,000. The reason is cause they have a time preference, they don't want to have to wait for a year of fishing to save $10,000 so they rather pay the extra $10,000 to have the fish now. So as we stated, the current good, these fish I've already fished is worth more than the future good, the fish they'd fish if they made the same capital investment.

Ok, so that should sum it up, so now for my addition...


Is it a "Time" Preference or a "Tangibility" Preference

I think the time preference exists not cause there is a time bias, but because there is a tangibility bias. A future good isn't as tangible as a current good so provokes less of a reaction. This Tangibility preference can not only be applied to intemporal scenarios but also other scenarios of differeing subjective values.

Example 1:

"The Stimulus Bill has saved the Jobs of Teachers and Public Sector Workers"

or

"If the Government had not gotten involved new jobs would've been created from capital reformation"

You ask the typical person which statement seems more plausible, they'd more than likely say the bizzarre keyensian statement I put up first. Why, it's more tangible to them cause they see the jobs that would've been lost, but they can't see the jobs that were prevented from being created. Now of course an Austrian is trained to understand opportunity cost so the increased tangibility from that understanding may have them choose the second statement.

Example 2

"Spend 10% of Income on Your Loved Ones"

or

"Have 10% of your income taxed which hypotheically benefit your loved once objectively just as much"

Which one you'd think a person would subjectvely value more, the first statement cause the results of this same expenditure is tangible, this would probably be true if the tax money got spent in the same way at the same time cause of it's tangibility. Although a left wing Keynesian might actually value the second statement cause they've been trained to value the benefit to society of impersonal expeditures like in the second statement so them it'd be more tangible.

So in conclusion, I feel time preference is a preference that exists but because of the tangibility of intemporal value. I would expect that a Austrian who is trained to think intertemporally would prefer future goods on occasion, cause it's more tangible. For example we prefer the future value of recession that the current good of stimulus spending. While it's a bit more complicated than simply jobs now versus jobs later a lot of Austrian theory actually emphasizes long term benefits over short term.


If you agree, we can still call this the ATPT, it'd just now stand for the Austrian Tangibility Preference Theory

How the Government destorys real democracy

When we think of democracy or a democratic process we really think of several individuals acting on their preferences and values, and when this happens large commonalities would steer society. So while any value or preference held by a large number of values and individuals would steer the ship, this only works if everyone else is free and able to voice and act on their opinion, and more important able to form one.

The democratic process occurs in several places, not just government. Eveytime you participate in market transactions and purchase a good or service you are expressing your value or preference for that good or item. When a large group of people purchase the same product, be sure that it will effect whether more or less of that product will be produced. Although our money isn't the only resource we have demonstrates our values and preferences. An individual ca also donate their time to join different groups such as religious groups, activist organization, militias, or any volunteer association.

So you can DIRECTLY effect the the dialogue of values and preferences in society through how you allocate your money and time. Although the less money and time you have then the less your able to DIRECTLY participate in this true democratic process.

- As resources are used for the Government Agenda, taxation occurs and resources are taken from individuals meaning they have less money to DIRECTLY participate

- As the money have shrinks cause of taxation they may have to work more time to make up it allowing them less time to volunteer and DIRECTLY participate

Several laws create other ways in which your money and time is taken from you, which reduces you ability participate democraticly such as the issue with sugar tariffs and corn subsisidies which create for an unhealthy culture and higher healthcare costs. Since the cost of health is higher, once again more time must be worked to make up the rising costs of healthcare meaning less time to participate in the democratic dialogue outside of government. Other rising costs in healthcare, energy, food, and more also put more pressure on your time and money.

After these effects take place then people begin to become dependant on Government as the sole method of expressing values and preferences in society since only a few have the time and money to do it elsewhere. People begin to proclaim the acts of elected officials as "The Will of the People".

First off, the people is made of several individuals all with slightly different views, so there can't be any collective "will of the people". Accepting this, each individuals votes for their elected official for different reasons, so while an official may win an election it's impossible to tell if they had a majority vote cause of a particular view or in spite of it. More than likely they pieced together a majority vote based on several different issues and sometimes votes just to spite the opposition. So winning an election does not determine, "The will of the people".

The only way to have a true to democratic process is for people to have the time and resources to participate in the community, and this can only happen by rejecting government as the sole tool for democratic action and accepting sound economic principles (Austran Economics) for people to have the time and money to participate.